I begin with a disclaimer—this is an illustration, it is not meant to be disrespectful.  The infinite monkey theorem states that monkeys hitting keys at random on a typewriter for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete healthcare bill—that’s not where I’m going with this even though that’s not too bad an idea.

When I think about this, the illustration is about what could happen, however improbable, not what will happen.  It requires a situation, tools, actors, and no direction—sort of like deism—no divine intervention.

Here’s my take on how this applies.  The situation—healthcare reform.  The tools—money.  The actors—providers, vendors, transformers, regulators.  Who’s in charge?  Nobody—unless of course you count Pelosi and Reid—but who are we kidding?

The only thing that makes the infinite monkey theorem even plausible is the fact that the monkeys are given infinite time.  Washington is not giving reform infinite time.  In fact, there’s a real sense of urgency.  That urgency, coupled with no leadership, none, makes the task unachievable.  All that has been offered is money.  Money without a decider will not yield reform.

Twenty-ish billion for healthcare IT sounded like a lot.  It’s not.  AIG got $79 billion.  Canada estimated HIT would cost $450 per person—they were low.  Our $20 billion is less than $60 a person.

Nobody is in charge, which means everybody is in charge.  Without AIG money and a leader, I believe we’re better off waiting to see what the monkeys build.