healthcare 2.0

Strategy–The land of small ideas

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Hangin’ by a thread

“It will feel better when it quits hurtin’.” Well duh.  It will also feel better when we stop self-inflicting the hurt.

To help me understand how things work I need to decompose issues, not into small parts, but into a series of pictures or shapes.  The pictures I come up with represent my particular perspective of how things look.  That can be a far cry from how others view them.  Maybe that stems from when I was a child and enjoying putting puzzles together upside down.

Instead if hitting myself over the head with a hammer, I set aside the easy pieces—those with straight edges and the four corners.

The puzzle was equally complete no matter whether you worked with the picture or just the shapes, but the exercise was quite different.  The advantage in doing it my way is that upon staring at 500 pieces of cardboard backing I had to bring different problem solving skills to the table.  The disadvantage is that once I could picture the solution in my mind, I lost all interest in completing the last few pieces of the puzzle.

I find myself looking at coming up with a reasoned approach for attacking the large provider healthcare business model.  Puzzle pieces are scattered across my desk; some right-side up, others right-side down.

Here’s where the process breaks down or breaks up—I am sure the direction is irrelevant.  How does one change someone that either does not want to change or one who thinks change is not needed?

Just because you think you’re being followed does not mean you are paranoid—it could mean you are the only one with enough focus to know what is happening.  Charging someone eight dollars for a bag of popcorn to keep your business afloat is not insightful, frankly, it is embarrassing.  Charging forty dollars to check a bag on a plane does not earn a CEO the Baldridge Award, it only allows the airline to lose less money, to stave off inevitable bankruptcy a little bit longer.  Eastern, Pan-Am, Braniff, TWA, Republic, Northwest, Piedmont, Midway, Independence.  They proved the same thing.  Continuing to use the same failed strategy delivered the same failed result.  Just because the first five people to jump off the garage roof couldn’t fly doesn’t mean you can’t.  Or does it?  Bigger wasn’t better, was it?

What does it cost to fly from New York to Seattle?  It depends.  What does it cost to have an angioplasty on Philadelphia?  It depends.  Did the airlines adopt their pricing model from hospitals, or was it the other way around?  Does it matter?  Probably not.

The land of small ideas, like Monty Python’s silly walks.  Somebody actually comes up with these ideas.  I doubt it is someone on the board.  People who lead do not one day lose their marbles and decry, “Our model is not working, let’s start charging passengers if they sit during the flight.”

If staying afloat requires a hospital to charge eight dollars a unit for Tylenol, the land of small ideas is winning.

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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My pre-mortem examination of the hospital business model

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  • encyclopedias
  • newspapers
  • movie rentals
  • theaters
  • airlines
  • magazines
  • libraries
  • broadcast television
  • wireline phone companies
  • record companies
  • DEC
  • Xerox
  • department stores
  • SUN
  • H-P
  • GM
  • A&P
  • Circuit City
  • Most US hospitals

In his book, “How the Mighty Fall,” Jim Collins describes the path to a business failing.  His five phases are:

  1. Hubris born of success
  2. Undisciplined pursuit of more
  3. Denial of risk and peril
  4. Grasping for salvation
  5. Capitulation to irrelevance or death

To those, I add a sixth, right between 3 and 4, “Dumping Ballast.”

  1. Hubris born of success
  2. Undisciplined pursuit of more
  3. Denial of risk and peril
  4. Dumping ballast
  5. Grasping for salvation
  6. Capitulation to irrelevance or death

Dumping ballast is the elimination of key components to lighten the ship.  Perhaps you remember seeing the movie version of Jules Verne’s novel,  the Mysterious Island.  In it, prisoners of the Civil War escape in a hot air balloon.  The balloon is ravaged by storms and looks like it will go down in the sea.  To keep it aloft the crew tosses everything overboard, things they would need if they reached land.

I think most hospitals in the US are concurrently working on stages 3 and 4.  The first step is to quit denying that they have a problem.  The second step is to recognize that some of what they discarded will prove critical to their chances of survival.

What do you think?

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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Why hospitals are like airlines and movie theaters

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I prefer to talk about events before they take place, not after. I don’t know if that makes me a futurist or merely someone not bright enough to understand them as they now are.  I like to have a think about things that don’t seem right.  This helps me understand what I may be missing, or if I may be on to something.

I got one of my “ah-ha” moments while driving to the airport yesterday; something I have done a few hundred times.  I could drive the route in my sleep.  I know of two ways to get there, so I really never thought about needing a third.  My bad.  One of the roads I take was flooded—the rain was so hard it appeared to be raining up.  After being stuck in traffic for twenty minutes,—route number two.  Five minutes later, the drenched man by the side of the road told me the bridge was out.

I found myself out of choices, poor planning on my part.  I came to a fork in the road and took it.  I still had a reasonable amount of time to make my flight.  Then I found myself driving behind a nun who was driving a Rambler.  Really.  We never hit thirty on the speedometer.  I would have missed the flight had it not been delayed.

It occurred to me as I was stopped that I had failed to heed my own advice.  I was guilty of having no plan for what to do if things changed, guilty of having no options because, “I have always done things this way.”

I am speaking this afternoon about innovation and transformation for the large healthcare provider model (hospitals)—could take five minutes, could take an hour—we will have to see how many people brought tomatoes to throw.

The large provider business model is dying.  Play along with me for a minute.  How many different services and procedures are offered by the “average” hospital?   A couple thousand.  Some are performed hundreds of times each day, some on a somewhat regular basis, and some rarely.  Let’s focus on those done rarely.

The funny thing about having the ability to do something is you have to pay for the resources and technology whether you do it once or hundreds of times.  The less you do it, the larger the negative ROI.  Most large providers offer many services with negative ROIs.  How does one alter the business model to compensate for that?  Charge for parking; charge $7 for each Tylenol, outsource less profitable services.

It might be important to recognize that the reason many services—the ones most patients need—are marginally profitable is because those services are helping to fund the unprofitable services.

Sooner or later, hospitals cut loose the low-end services.  Others gobble them up, and make tremendous profits from offering them under a new business model.

I started thinking about other industries that operate under a similar business model.  The two I came up with are movie theaters and the large airlines—both which offer a service.  One of my early clients was the CFO of one of the country’s largest theaters.  They knew their costs down to the penny.  They lose money on every movie they show.  That is why they charge eight dollars for popcorn.  Their model is broken.  Are they changing it?  No.  Others changed it.  Blockbuster did.  Then their model broke.  Now we have NetFlixs.  They are making money without the popcorn.

Continental and United are merging.  Will that make things better?  Will they stop charging for bags?  Will they offer free meals?  More seat room?  Of course not.  Combined, they will lose even more money.  Their model is broken.  Are they changing it?  No.  What are they doing—buying even bigger planes.

You know who owns fifty-five percent of the flying market?  The pesky, disruptive regional carriers.  They make lots of money.  They have a different model, and they know their costs.

Disrupting the business model and changing the way you do something are not the same.  At some point there will be nothing left to change except for what you do.  Building a need for every sub-specialty offered by EPIC is not disruptive, it is dysfunctional.  Offering the same services as every other hospital within your coverage area is not disruptive, it is duplicative.  It simply divides the revenue pie for any given procedure into smaller slices.

Hospitals know their charges, not their costs.  They can’t pull a P&L per patient, or per procedure.  How can one price an Accountable Care model without knowing the costs?  An executive at a large children’s hospital told me they have to markup the costs of little things, like pills, two-hundred and fifty percent.  Unless hospitals are prepared to disrupt their business model, they had better buy a lot more pills.

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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The Kevorkian of the large provider business model

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I call this my premortem of the large provider business model—I guess that makes me its Kevorkian.  The new reform law is Washington’s Anschluss of the healthcare business model—the annexation of the old way of doing business.  With change, as with writing a novel, the most difficult part is to invent the end.  It is only difficult if someone actually gets to that part, the end.  Many large providers remain mired in the first chapter.

The term Ultima Thule refers to any distant place located beyond the “borders of the known world.”  That is where we are when it comes to trying to understand the implications in the realm of the known and unknown external influences on the business model of the large healthcare provider.  I tend to have a stygian mindset about how I think these influences will play out—when Washington sneezes, it is the providers who catch the cold.

Sometimes it is a matter of asking the right questions.  Unfortunately, when one asks questions, somebody always has answers.  The bad thing about answers is they often bring closure to the process of thinking.  In the short-term there may be a modus Vivendi between us—an agreement to agree to disagree, but in the long-term limiting one’s vision to the borders of the known world will prove fatal.

Gone are healthcare’s Elysian moments when leaders thought they could keep doing what they were doing as long as they did it a little better.  At some point, there are no more costs to cut.  Providers will not be able to get any Leaner.  The time has come to square the circle—something proven impossible in 1882 by Ferdinand Lindemann.  Squaring the circle is an attempt to construct a square with the same area of a given circle using Euclidian geometry.

Trying to retrofit today’s healthcare model to meet tomorrow’s business requirements seems to me to be a similar argument.  It can’t be done; you can’t get there from here.  That it cannot be done won’t stop people from trying.  The impossibility cannot be proven.  The proof will be apparent only when hospitals start to fail.  Only then will it be possible to “walk back the cat” to diagnostically deconstruct what failed hospitals should have done.

A purpose of intelligence is the ability to assess and predict.  The application of thinking and intelligence is the ability to assign relative importance to predictions.  Here’s my assessment and prediction.

To successfully change the large provider model one must disrupt it, not simply adjust it.  It has nothing to do with asking, “How can we do this better?” disruption requires that we ask, “Do we need to do this?”

For example, last week I met with the former CFO of a group of east-coast hospitals.  Each hospital had an orthopedic department.  The group also owned an orthopedic clinic.  The clinic was ranked among the top twenty orthopedic centers in the US.  None of the hospitals’ orthopedic departments was ranked in the top one hundred.  The CFO recommended the hospitals close their orthopedic departments and service those patients at the clinic.  This would improve quality and eliminate duplicative costs.  Great idea.  Unfortunately the board liked their hospitals to be able to offer all things to all people—quality and cost be damned.

Pittsburgh has more MRI machines than Canada.  Why?

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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And now for something completely different

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My new favorite toy is Prezi.com.  This prezi link is for a speech I am giving Tuesday at ICSI on what hospitals should do to increase their revenues.  For those expecting bullet points, this is the wrong place to look.

I welcome your feedback, especially since their is very little text.  I come from the school of wanting people to listen to what I saw, rather than read my slides–otherwise I don’t need to be there.  Besides, people don’t take notes at the movies, why should they during a talk.

http://prezi.com/ved_jyx95m_d/

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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Contact me: Google Talk/paulroemer Skype/paulroemer Google Wave/paulroemer

Hospital Business Strategy–One size fits none

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One size fits none, or is it one.  The patient rarely buys what the hospital is selling.  The hospital sells a hip replacement—the patient is buying the ability to play golf for ten more years.

Clayton Christensen conducted a study which showed that seventy percent of today’s patients would have been in the ICU thirty years ago, and seventy percent of the patients in today’s ICUs would have died thirty years ago.  The question the study seemed to leave unaddressed is who is now caring for those patients who were not in the ICU and who didn’t die.  Wanna’ bet most have been outsourced to non-hospital care givers?

There was a successful business model in that group of patients when they were treated at the hospital thirty years ago.  There is an even larger business model today for that same set of patients; only it is no longer owned by the hospital.

Hospitals have more high-end capability—and cost—than the average patient will utilize—sort of an 80/20 rule on steroids.  Each successive clinical breakthrough enables the hospital to solve a problem for a mere handful of patients that will have no application to the bulk of patients.

What if instead of continuing to expand the current model ad nauseum, the hospital flipped the model on its side and catered to the eighty percent?  What if the business model centered on serving mainstream customers?  But then who or what would handle the other twenty percent of the cases?  An autonomous business unit could be established to serve those cases, or they could be outsourced to a group which did.

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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The large provider business model–The Sky is Falling

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This link takes you to my newest post on Anthony Guerra’s HeathsystemCIO.com site.  I welcome your thoughts.

http://healthsystemcio.com/2010/04/27/the-large-provider-business-model-the-sky-is-falling/

My best – Paul

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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Why is the large provider business model obsolescing?

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Margaret Thatcher said, “Anyone who finds themselves on public transport after the age of 26 must consider themselves a failure.” There’s probably some sort of corollary for anyone twice that age that spends part of every day writing to imaginary people on the web.

When I write I like to pick a side and stand by it instead of standing in the middle of the road where you can get run over by the traffic from both sides. Likewise, I don’t look for consensus around an idea. Consensus is the process of everyone abandoning their beliefs and principles and meeting in the middle. When was it decided that meeting in the middle is beneficial? So, achieving consensus about a problem is nothing more than that state of lukewarm affection one feels when one neither believes in nor objects to a proposition.

Having this approach to solving business problems tends to yield a high number of critics. I don’t mind critics; those are the same people who after seeing me walk across a swimming pool would say that my walking only proves that I can’t swim. I rather enjoy it when someone offers a decidedly personal attack on something I wrote if only because it means they can’t find a legitimate business principle on which to base their argument. I love the debate, and I don’t expect anyone to agree with me just because I say it is so.

In trying to promote a different way of looking at the large provider business model, I’ve learned that it’s not possible to lead from within the crowd. The “as-is” was created by history, by followers. The future will be created by someone who believes it can be done better. I believe firmly in the notion that improving the business model by building off the current one is like trying to cure a cold with leeches.

The approach that has been used to grow the business for the last fifty years is that the hospital is responsible for everything. And yet, who is responsible for the hospital? Who is accountable for the fact that the business model is obsolescing itself?  We have loads of new stuff—expensive stuff.  No other industry can tout new and improved better than healthcare.  However, in those industries new and improved means faster, smaller, cheaper–it means adding services to reach significantly more customers, not fewer.

Each new and improved procedure with its more costly overhead has application to a smaller percentage of the health population, thereby allocating that overhead across fewer patients.  In turn, that makes the low-margin services unprofitable.  Those services will be cut lose, picked up by new entrants with lower overhead.  Those entrants will make a good business out of services discarded by hospitals.  The cycle will repeat, as it has for decades.  The profitable new entrants will move up-market.

Is it a question of scale versus scope, or scale and scope?  What happens if instead of continuing to repeat the cycle, large healthcare providers were to invert it?  What makes them more relevant, adding the capability to perform a procedure used once a month or one used once an hour?  Which is more important to the future model, inpatient care or outpatient care?  I suggest that “in” or “out” will become irrelevant.

Those phone booths in the photo used to be the way to make public calls, now you can’t even find a booth.  Maybe some day someone will take a photo of a group of hospitals stacked next to each other in a vacant lot.

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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Key questions for CEOs and their Boards

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Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.  Everybody who thinks they have their arms around EHR and healthcare reform, take one step forward……whoa, where are you going Sparky?

The questions below resulted from a round-table discussion I recently had  with six healthcare executives about EHR and healthcare reform. The topic we discussed was what questions should C-Level executives be prepared to answer and what questions should boards be asking. What do you think? Are their others you’d add?

Are we taking adequate advantage of stimulus funding to improve our readiness?

How is health care reform going to impact our business and when?

Are we doing enough to be ready to succeed in an environment where we get paid for outcomes rather than inputs?

Are we ready to comply with Federal policies for Electronic Health Record reporting and sharing?

Are we achieving our own business improvement standards? Do we have the right standards?

Are we ready to use web 2.0 technologies to improve clinical outcomes for our clients?

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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How many Sigmas does it take to change a hospital?

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I wrote this in response to some comments I received on my piece in HospitalImpact.org.

I do not advocate assembly line medicine, especially at a hospital. I go out of my way to stay out of the healthcare business, the clinical side of healthcare, an area in which I have no background other than having been a patient.

If the hip replacement analogy was a poor choice–my bad. The point of the piece was not the hip replacement, rather the seemingly inability to answer basic business questions relating to how the business of healthcare is run.

I think there is a need for the independence and the je ne sais quoi nature of care. I just happen to think that the business of healthcare and the healthcare business can coexist in a more business-like manner. There are hospitals which get it right, and those which get it much less right.

Some of it has to do with costs, some with waste–wasted time, wasted opportunity, some with ineffectiveness, and some with planning. If one hospital can do X for thirty percent less than another, I think it is worth exploring what accounts for the delta. If another hospital can perform twenty percent more procedures with the same level of resources, that is worth investigating. There is no point keeping metrics unless one is willing to improve them.

I am not big on efficiency. In many cases, efficiency implies speed. It is possible to perform poor processes at a speed which will make your head spin. Lots of hospitals are toying with Lean. Lean works best with a valid set of processes. Without a valid set of processes–best processes–there are not enough Sigmas to justify the expense.

Then there are the cost cutting advocates. Cost cutting is a dead end strategy.  Every manager worth their salt can cut costs–less than one in a hundred can increase revenues. What do you do when there are no more costs to cut? Are you more effective, or net-net did you simply replace the brewed coffee with Folgers? Want to cut costs? Lock the doors. But that does not solve anything.

If none of these questions can be answered today, what happens in five years? New entrants will have gobbled up many profitable services and will be able to do so because they do not have “Big Box” overhead. Reform will have forced another business model on large providers. Payors and pharma will continue to battle for their share of each healthcare dollar.

I think hospitals can grab an even larger portion of that dollar, but I do not think they can do it without changing how they approach the business of healthcare.

saint Paul M. Roemer
Chief Imaginist, Healthcare IT Strategy

1475 Luna Drive, Downingtown, PA 19335
+1 (484) 885-6942
paulroemer@healthcareitstrategy.com

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